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Melbourne, Sydney growth to be short-lived
Current value growth in Sydney and Melbourne is unlikely to continue for much longer, according to a leading research analyst.
RP Data's Cameron Kusher said past trends indicate other capital cities are more likely to experience prolonged growth.
“Given that historically, growth periods have tended to be shorter in Sydney and Melbourne than those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, it would be reasonable to anticipate that the current rate of value growth will not continue for an extended period of time,” Mr Kusher said.
He predicted Brisbane and Adelaide would start to see stronger value growth in coming months as their affordability improves relative to other major capitals.
In the current recovery phase, the market has taken its lead from Sydney, followed by Perth and Darwin, Mr Kusher said. However, he also warned that overall current appreciation in capital cities is weaker than in previous growth periods.
“Although there is some clear strengthening of values, the magnitude of the increase is less than what was recorded during previous growth cycles, despite positive data released in the September RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results earlier this week,” said Mr Kusher.
The data shows capital city home values increased 5.5 per cent over the past 12 months and by 8.7 per cent since a recent low point in May 2012.
A 17-month period commencing in 2007 showed a growth rate of 15.1 per cent.
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