Which state missed out on a rise in house sales?

Across the major capital cities, new house sales were up in every major state, with the exception of Queensland.

The largest sales rise was recorded in Victoria at 7.9 per cent. This was followed by 4 per cent in Western Australia, 0.6 of a percentage point in NSW and 0.4 of a percentage point in South Australia.

Meanwhile, Queensland was the only major state to record a decline, with a drop of 10.8 per cent.

“Despite the monthly pause, the longer term trend of decline in sales remains in place. We still expect new home building to decline in 2019,” Ms Hopkins said.

“With activity on a clear path to decline in 2019, the key questions now go to the overall building cycle – when and at what level the downturn will reach a floor and then ultimately return to growth.

“Traditionally, new home building downturns last about seven quarters, while the magnitude of the declines have ranged between 13 and 35 per cent.”

Ms Hopkins added she expects the current downturn to stand out from previous cycles, with the report noting the current downturn being precipitated by tightening credit conditions imposed by the government and regulatory measures, as opposed to the typical causes: interest rate hikes or global economic disturbances.

“While we expect the current downturn to be longer than what has been typical – spanning some 18 quarters peak to trough – we expect the trajectory to be relatively modest,” she said.

“The total decline is forecast to be in the order of 20 per cent.”

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