Where investors can find $150k of savings in affordable suburbs
New data has found the top and worst affordable suburbs for growth over the next three years, which could mean pocketing a considerable chunk of savings.
By analysing house markets at approximately the $500,000 mark, Sell or Hold has identified the suburbs that are expected to grow between $115,000 to $150,000 over the next three years, while also finding the suburbs that are likely to decline the most.
The high-growth suburbs were located in NSW, Queensland and South Australia, while the worst-performing were found in the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland again.
Due to the $500,000 requirement, no Sydney suburbs were included in the list.
Sell or Hold’s head of research, Jeremy Sheppard, said that by comparing the top and bottom five suburbs, he said the contrast between the two was staggering.
“The number one house market is forecast to be Karabar in the Queanbeyan region of New South Wales, where its median house price of about $523,000 is tipped to grow by $150,000 in just three years,” Mr Sheppard said.
“However, in the Darwin suburb of Rosebery, its median house price of nearly $525,000 is likely to post a price fall of about $3,150 over the same period.
“Comparing the pair shows that holding on to an underperforming asset could potentially cost an investor $153,000 in lost capital growth in a relatively short period of time.”
Karabar’s success was due in part to being close to Canberra and riding its coattails, Mr Sheppard said, as the suburb is seen as a “commuter town” for public servants.
Toowoomba’s Middle Ridge was in second place with an estimated price growth of $125,000 expected by 2022.
“Middle Ridge is one of Toowoomba’s premier suburbs and is located in a region with a strong local economy as well as a number of large infrastructure projects, including the Toowoomba Wellcamp Airport, which was Australia’s first privately funded major airport,” Mr Sheppard said.
“Third place goes to Seaton in Adelaide, where its median house price is forecast to increase by about $119,000 over the next three years.”
Meanwhile, the worst suburbs were found in struggling markets, except for fifth place Bahrs Scrub in the Brisbane area.
“Median house prices in Bahrs Scrub are likely to stagnate over the next three years, with forecast growth of only 4.9 per cent, which is partly due to there being ample land available for new supply in that market,” he said.
“Investors in suburbs with poor prospects of capital growth over the short to medium-term would be wise to consider whether holding the property will end up costing them far more in opportunity costs and future capital growth than exit and entry expenses.”
State |
Area |
Suburb |
Current median |
Forecast 3-year % growth |
Forecast 3-year $ change |
NSW |
Canberra - |
Karabar |
$ 522,986 |
28.80% |
$150,620 |
QLD |
Toowoomba |
Middle Ridge |
$ 524,490 |
23.90% |
$125,353 |
SA |
Adelaide |
Seaton |
$ 508,280 |
23.40% |
$118,938 |
NSW |
Newcastle - Maitland |
Ashtonfield |
$ 538,227 |
23.20% |
$124,869 |
SA |
Adelaide |
Brompton |
$ 519,077 |
22.80% |
$118,350 |
The bottom five suburbs for house price growth at around $500,000, according to Sell or Hold, are:
State |
Area |
Suburb |
Current median |
Forecast 3-year % growth |
Forecast 3-year $ change |
NT |
Darwin |
Rosebery |
$ 524,700 |
-0.60% |
-$3,148 |
WA |
Perth |
Wandi |
$ 525,638 |
-0.40% |
-$2,103 |
WA |
Perth |
Piara Waters |
$ 495,624 |
3.60% |
$17,842 |
NT |
Darwin |
Malak |
$ 469,952 |
3.80% |
$17,858 |
QLD |
Brisbane |
Bahrs Scrub |
$ 490,432 |
4.90% |
$24,031
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