Property market update: Brisbane, January 2022

CoreLogic noted that the latest data showed the continued pattern of multi-speed markets across the country.

At the end of 2021, it can be recalled CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless stated that there is no longer a synchronised and broad-based upswing across all markets of Australia and a “two-speed” market has emerged.

Brisbane and Adelaide, which previously lagged behind the larger capital cities during the start of the latest property frenzy, are now seen to be leading the charge and the cities that are driving the last legs of the boom.

On that note, Brisbane and Adelaide’s strong performance in January was par for the course. The two cities were the clear stand-out capital cities for price increases over the month, as both markets notched more than 2 per cent monthly gains. Meanwhile, growth conditions across the remaining capital cities have slowed or flatlined.

Brisbane’s relative affordability as well as its low supply coupled with strong demand from interstate buyers are seen to be the main growth drivers in the Sunshine State capital.

Mr Lawless said that while the January data was “hard to read” because of the thin volume of housing stock traded during the month, the future direction of the market would be in large part dependent on the selling intentions of current owners.

“The trends in advertised supply levels go a long way towards explaining the performance of housing values,” Mr Lawless explained.

“Melbourne and Sydney have seen inventory levels normalise over recent months, taking some urgency out of the market as supply and demand become more evenly balanced,” he stated.

He highlighted that the scenario is very different in Adelaide and Brisbane, where “supply remains tight and buyer competition is a key factor supporting the upwards pressure on prices”.

And despite the rapid onset of Omicron in Queensland, it seems that it did little to slow down growth in the city. Melinda Jennison, the managing director of Streamline Property Buyers, said: “[Omicron] has had little impact, if any, on the Brisbane property market as a whole.”

She said that while the latest COVID-19 outbreak has reportedly caused listing delays, this had only added more pressure on an already low listing volume market.

On the demand side, Domain’s head of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell has revealed that 26 per cent of property inquiries in Brisbane over the last quarter of 2021 came from southern home hunters.

“This increased demand within a market already battling with very low supply is continuing to put pressure on prices,” she stated.

As the cards continue to be seemingly stacked in Brisbane’s favour, how high can property values in the Sunshine State capital go? Or will the city’s bullish run be thwarted by brewing headwinds?

For now, let’s see how Brisbane performed in January 2022.

Property values

CoreLogic’s latest monthly data revealed dwelling values in Brisbane rose by a further 2.3 per cent in January.

While the monthly gain is lower than December’s 2.9 per cent increase, the slowdown can be attributed to the traditional decline in market activity during the period.

The current median value for dwellings across Brisbane has now broken the $700,000 barrier at $706,594, which is $23,042 higher than just one month ago.

Over the previous quarter, Brisbane also led the capital city pack with a staggering 8.3 per cent increase.

The Queensland capital also recorded the highest annual growth rate across the capital cities, with housing values up 29.2 per cent. Compared to the same period last year, the median dwelling value in the city has risen by approximately $159,763.

The city’s housing market continued to outpace other capital housing markets, as median values for Brisbane rose by a further 2.5 per cent in the first month of 2022.

Notably, the sector’s rate of growth has slowed down for the second month in a row, down from the November 2021 high of 3.2 per cent, followed by 3.1 per cent price growth across December, which may also be the result of a seasonal trend.

The monthly gain drove the median value for Brisbane houses to an all-time high of $809,813, which indicated a $26,846 increase over the month.

The 12-month change in the city’s house prices sat at 32.3 per cent in January, the strongest annual house price growth across all capital cities.

Meanwhile, the city’s unit market experienced a slightly softer growth throughout the month but the sector’s median value still reached a new record high.

Unit median values in Brisbane rose by 1.4 per cent in January, edging down from the 1.6 per cent increase observed in the previous month.

The current median unit price in the city currently stands at $458,149, which is $6,893 more than one month ago. Compared to the same period last year, units have risen by 12.7 per cent.

CoreLogic’s data also showed that the higher value properties continue to lead the city’s growth. In the quarter ending December 2021, the top 25 per cent of dwelling values recorded a 9 per cent growth, up from 8.1 per cent at the end of November.

The figures are also higher than the 7.3 per cent growth seen in the lowest 25 per cent of property values across the city (up from 5.9 per cent last month).

Meanwhile, the middle 50 per cent of values in Brisbane saw an increase in the three months to December of 8.5 per cent, compared to 7.1 per cent growth in the three months to November.

CoreLogic noted that while all segments of the Brisbane market are in a strong growth phase right now and despite the highest valued properties continuing to lead growth over a three-month period, the trend of accelerating growth in the middle and lower value properties compared to the top segment of the market is an interesting development.

CoreLogic further highlighted this as a trend that may be reflective of the fact that affordability constraints may be starting to show at the top end of the market, or a lot of home buyers (who typically make up the top end of the market in Brisbane) may have been less active in the lead up to Christmas, thereby dampening demand to a small extent.

Supply and demand

The number of properties listed on Brisbane’s market continued to be low in January, driving up prices in the city.

SQM Research’s data showed total listing volumes in the city fell by 8.7 per cent in January to 16,057 from 17,487 in December 2021. Compared to 12 months ago, total listings have fallen by 37.6 percent.

Brisbane’s new listings (or properties that have been on the market less than 30 days) saw a 14.4 per cent decline over the month from 6,000 to 5,137. Year on year, new listings in the city are down by 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, data showed that old listings or property listings over 180 days also fell by 8.6 per cent from 2,476 in December to 2,262 in January. On an annual basis, old listings in Brisbane have fallen by 64.4 per cent, the steepest annual decline among capital markets.

While Brisbane’s market traditionally sees a seasonal trend of lower listings over December and January, the figures are still well below median levels. According to CoreLogic, total listings in Brisbane are still -46.8 per cent below the five-year average.

As Queenslanders said goodbye to border restrictions on 13 January, local experts also reported a surge in demand from interstate buyers.

Antonia Mercorella, the chief executive of Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), said January was historically a quiet period for property agents, but demand from interstate buyers remained high.

According to data from REIQ, the strongest demand was coming from NSW and Victoria.

“Queensland offers affordability compared to Melbourne and Sydney, the state also has liveability – particularly in the throes of COVID when people are looking for a better quality of life,” she said.

With domestic borders fully open, a fresh wave of interstate migration is seen to further boost Brisbane’s market activity.

“With the removal of final obstacles that were making it difficult for people from NSW and Victoria to come to Queensland, I think that will signal a new wave of interstate migration,” Ms Mercorella concluded.

Ms Jennison also reported strong buyer activity during the month, stating: “The new year started strongly, with buyers showing up for the first weekend of open homes in high numbers. We expected with state borders opening that this was going to be the case. Demand is still strong for quality properties throughout the city.”

She stated that there was a marked increase in buyer activity on the weekend after Australia Day, a trend that has been seen every year.

“Line-ups were observed on the last weekend of January 2022 at some open homes around the city,” she commented.

She said that while line-ups were very common early in 2021, it was a rare occurrence towards the end of the year. “[The] recent change reflects a new increase in buyer demand, especially for quality properties in and around the inner city,” she said.

Local agents have also reported that properties still have multiple buyers and, in turn, are still selling with multiple offers.

“The market remains highly competitive, and buyers need to be thinking about how to make their offer more appealing than others in these circumstances. When sellers get to choose from multiple offers presented, the terms of an offer, as well as price, become very important,” she stated.

Auction markets

Brisbane’s auction market opened at full throttle this year, supercharged by vendors looking to capitalise on last year’s record price rises.

CoreLogic noted that compared to the previous years, more vendors were hitting the market over the traditionally quieter summer holiday period this year in a bid to get ahead of the competition.

The property data provider reported that during the last two weeks of January, a total of 250 properties went under the hammer in the Queensland capital, with a final clearance rate of almost 75 per cent.

While Brisbane’s volume continued to trend lower compared to its bigger southern counterparts, CoreLogic said that the city’s weekly figures were higher compared to the same period last year.

Local experts expect the city’s auction market to continue heating up throughout February. “Based on many conversations with auctioneers around Brisbane and also agents themselves, we are confident that sellers’ expectations are starting to move ahead of the market,” Ms Jennison stated.

If you want to be in the loop about what’s happening across auction markets in the country, follow our weekly updates in our News section.

Rental market

In the last quarter, Brisbane (along with Canberra) saw the fastest rise in rents among capital cities.

CoreLogic reported that over the three months ending January, dwelling rents in Brisbane and Canberra rose by 2.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, markets where rents were previously rising the fastest, Darwin and Perth, recorded the slowest pace of rental growth at 0.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, over the rolling quarter.

The stronger rental growth in Brisbane and Canberra reflected an imbalance between rental supply and demand, according to CoreLogic. This trend is more evident for houses, where rental growth has been higher than across units.

Data showed that on an annual basis, both house and unit rents in Brisbane rose by 11.6 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively.

Although rents have been rising at an above-average pace through the pandemic, dwelling values have risen more substantially and have driven yields in most cities to the lowest level on record.

Gross rental yields for dwellings across all of Brisbane, according to CoreLogic, stood at 3.6 per cent throughout January, down from the previous month’s 3.7 per cent.

Vacancy rates

Brisbane’s rental market further tightened in January, falling to a record low of 1 per cent from the 1.3 per cent observed in December. This is the city’s lowest vacancy rate since Domain records began.

Compared to the same period last year, the city’s vacancy rate has declined from 1.5 per cent.

The areas with the highest vacancy rates in Brisbane and Gold Coast were Brisbane inner (2.5 per cent), Sherwood – Indooroopilly (2.2 per cent), Nathan (1.9 per cent), Kenmore – Brookfield – Moggill (1.7 per cent), and Brisbane inner – west (1.7 per cent).

Meanwhile, the areas with the lowest vacancy rates were Mudgeeraba – Tallebudgera (0.1 per cent), Nerang (0.2 per cent), Strathpine (0.2 per cent), Ormeau – Oxenford (0.2 per cent), and Robina (0.2 per cent).

As the majority of capital cities continue to be landlords’ markets, Dr Powell stated: “If conditions carry on in the same direction we’re likely to see competition and weekly asking rents continue to rise.”

Outlook for Brisbane’s market

In the coming months, Brisbane’s property market is expected to continue riding on tailwinds brought on by strong market conditions.

“Based on our early observations, we expect 2022 will remain strong, and property price growth will continue in Brisbane. There are simply too many buyers competing for such limited inventory, and therefore the competition will continue to drive prices,” Ms Jennison forecast.

She said that unless a large volume of new listings floods the market in the early months of 2022, the expectation of strong price growth continues to hold water.

Of course, the local expert also acknowledged the headwinds that Brisbane’s market faces along with other capital markets, such as potential interest rate hikes, a federal election and tighter credit availability.

Recently, ANZ has lifted its house price forecast for Brisbane by 7 percentage points to 16 per cent, almost twice its earlier prediction.

ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said that the higher property value forecasts were a reflection of stronger than expected market indicators so far this year.

“We have lifted our forecast for this year to reflect the stronger market momentum coming into 2022,” she said.

“Prices have moved in line with what we expected over the past few months, but some leading indicators have been a bit stronger. We’ve seen a pick-up in housing finance in November and December and clearance rates have risen to the low 70s from an average of 63 per cent in early December.

“Sentiment about house prices has also lifted, so there does seem to be just a little bit more momentum in the housing market than we expected a few months back.”

Ms Emmett noted Brisbane and Adelaide were showing the strongest growth momentum as they continued to benefit from interstate migration, driven by affordability and livability.

However, the lender is now expecting larger house price falls across the capitals during 2023 as rising mortgage rates start to bite, with Brisbane forecast to fall by 3 per cent during the year.

Last November, ANZ had expected the city’s prices to decline by 2 per cent in 2023.

She said the updated forecasts were brought on by the change in their expected rate hike timeline. “The price falls are a little bit larger than we had previously predicted and that really reflects the fact that we’ve brought forward our expectation for cash rate hikes to September this year,” Ms Emmett said.

“We expect the cash rate to reach 2 per cent by the end of 2022, so that will clearly have an impact on the market, but we’re not expecting to see prices turn sharply lower because there are lots of other positives for the housing market like low unemployment and the return of immigration, which all provide support for house prices.”

To see other big four lenders’ forecasts for Brisbane’s growth trajectory in 2022, check out our previous market update.

If you’re a first-time buyer looking to enter the real estate market, make sure to also check out Smart Property Investment’s brand-new white paper, Why 2022 is the right year to invest for beginners.

For more industry expert insights on the property market, check out our amazing podcasts. Also, make sure to check our News Section for the latest property market reports, insights, news and useful tips and strategies for investors.

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