Brisbane property market update August 2023
Brisbane has regained its position as the fastest growing capital city market across all of Australia. Unlike other capital city markets, the driving force behind price growth in Brisbane is low listing volumes combined with high buyer demand. With more buyers competing for fewer properties, prices just keep going up.
Since markets bottomed out earlier this year, Sydney is still ahead with 8.8 per cent price gains whereas Brisbane has experienced gains of 6.6 per cent. At the same time, other markets have flatlined, including Hobart where values have remained unchanged since stabilising in April, and ACT values have only increased 1 per cent across the same period. In these markets, listing volumes are also tracking higher, which seems to be a key factor in contributing to less price escalation.
Listing volumes in Brisbane are very low and have been for some time now. New listings in Brisbane were 15.6 per cent lower last month compared to the same period 12 months prior, according to CoreLogic. The same data confirmed that total listings were -22.3 per cent lower across the same period. SQM Research also showed fewer new and total listings year-on-year, but this data also confirmed that listings declined from July 2023 to August 2023. Across a single month in Brisbane, new listings were down slightly from 7,250 to 7,208 and total listings also reduced from 17,692 to 17,650. Stock is tight, and there is no doubt about this fact. Buyers are feeling the pinch on the ground.
Recent results from the Australian Property Investor’s Property Sentiment Report Q2 2023 confirmed that 31 per cent of all investors across Australia think Queensland offers the best investment prospects in the future. The same results revealed that 71.8 per cent of property investors expect property prices to keep increasing. It seems that buyers who have the capacity to purchase are still very active in the market, and they are getting in before prices keep escalating.
We have noticed that first home buyers are progressively making up a smaller portion of housing finance commitments in Queensland, and perhaps this is due to affordability issues. Investors, however, still make up 34.7 per cent of all housing finance commitments according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABM) data.
Possibly due to some of the reasons highlighted above, as well as relative affordability and strong population growth, demand remains strong across both the housing and unit market sectors in Brisbane. Sales volumes have dropped 19.9 per cent in Brisbane across the last 12 months, which is more likely caused by fewer properties becoming available for sale, rather than a decline in active purchasing activity.
The average auction clearance rate in Brisbane, according to Apollo’s auction data, was 68 per cent throughout August, slightly higher than the previous two months. On average, there were 3.8 registered bidders at each auction – another small increase from last month. Finally, of those who had registered, the number of active bidders also increased throughout August to 63.35 per cent. These are all signs of stronger participation at auctions across the city, which reaffirms the other demand indicators that have been observed across the city.
With the RBA placing interest rates on hold for the third consecutive month, there is more optimism from buyers. Inflation has passed its peak and the monthly CPI indictor for July shows further declines, which is in line with predictions. These factors all play a part in shaping buyer sentiment, which remains strong in many parts of Queensland’s capital city.
Dwelling values
Median dwelling values in Brisbane, according to CoreLogic, increased 1.5 per cent in August. This stamps Brisbane’s position as the fastest growing capital city market across all of Australia for both monthly and quarterly growth. Quarterly growth in Brisbane has been 4.2 per cent, edging slightly in front of Sydney in second place, which has seen 3.8 per cent price growth across the same period.
The median value for a dwelling in Greater Brisbane is currently $747,626. This is 37 per cent higher than pre-COVID-19, according to CoreLogic.
Source: CoreLogic
PropTrack data also showed that Brisbane’s median dwelling values increased by a further 0.27 per cent throughout August, although this data did not show that Brisbane’s market had the highest growth over the month.
Source: PropTrack
The top 25 per cent of property values have been leading the price growth in Brisbane across the last three months. CoreLogic data confirms that the highest value properties have seen is 4.5 per cent growth over the three months to the end of July, whereas the middle segment of the market has seen 4 per cent growth and the bottom segment of the market just 3.9 per cent growth.
Source: CoreLogic
The housing market
Throughout August, house values in Brisbane jumped 1.6 per cent according to CoreLogic. Quarterly growth was 4 per cent. This data shows, once again, that the housing market in Brisbane has outperformed all other capital city housing markets across Australia on a monthly and quarterly basis. Median house values in Brisbane are currently $832,247, which is $12,415 more than last month.
Source: CoreLogic
PropTrack data also confirmed positive growth for Brisbane houses throughout August with a increase of 0.27 per cent.
Source: PropTrack
Unit market in Brisbane
Median unit values in Brisbane also increased throughout August, according to CoreLogic, with a monthly rise in value of 1.1 per cent. This puts quarterly growth for Brisbane units at 3.8 per cent, again being the strongest performing capita city unit market over the last three months. The median value for a unit in Greater Brisbane is now $526,159, which is $5,813 more than last month.
Source: CoreLogic
Unit values also showed a rise in values in Brisbane for the month of August, according to PropTrack data. This data showed 0.32 per cent growth across the month with annual growth being 6.98 per cent, much stronger than the housing section of the market across Brisbane, which has reported 3.75 per cent growth.
Source: PropTrack
Rental market in Brisbane
For the last three months, vacancy rates across Brisbane have remained unchanged, according to SQM Research. They are currently sitting at 1 per cent, but there is some variation at a suburb level. For example, in Petrie vacancy rates are currently at 0.4 per cent and Keperra at 0.6 per cent. Other areas have slightly higher vacancy rates, including Darra at 1.6 per cent and Sinnamon Park at 2.4 per cent.
Despite this, we are starting to see the rate of rent price escalation ease slightly month-to-month. House rents in Brisbane have increased 6.9 per cent over the last 12 months, according to CoreLogic, and unit rents have increased 15.4 per cent. While this is still strong growth, there is some hope for tenants that the strong rate of rental price hikes earlier this year may be starting to ease.
Source: CoreLogic
Summary
There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Brisbane market is firmly in a state of recovery after the price falls experienced throughout the latter months of 2022. The imbalance between properties available for sale and the number of interested buyers is apparent across different property types, as well as within several suburbs throughout Greater Brisbane.
Buyers are becoming increasingly frustrated once again. There is confusion around value given the recent price falls, and now this rapid recovery. There are also high levels of competition and an increasing sense of urgency due to more buyers competing for less stock.
In terms of the future, it is unlikely that property prices will stop escalating while we have such limited choice. Buyers are looking for more properties to purchase, but it seems that sellers are holding off listing their properties for sale. Perhaps this is because many sellers become buyers, and they want a level of certainty about where they are moving to before they list their property for sale. Relying on the rental market as an interim arrangement now is also difficult, so there really is a lot stopping the normal flow of sales.
The Brisbane market is undersupplied. There is little to buy and little to rent. While these conditions continue to exist, at the same time as buyer and renter demand remains strong, we will only see the increased competition continue to put upward pressure on prices.
Melinda Jennison, Streamline Property Buyers, and the president of REBAA.