Listings surge doesn’t mean markets are booming: SQM Research

Melbourne housed the most listings throughout the month (37,536), followed by Sydney (31,542) and Brisbane (19,066). All three cities experienced month-on-month listings increases of 12.2 per cent, 10.5 per cent, and 8 per cent respectively.

National capital Canberra reported the largest jump in listings between August and September (16 per cent), while Darwin sat on the opposite end of the spectrum after listings in the Northern Territory climbed 2 per cent during the same period.

New listings jumped 14.3 per cent in September, with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra outperforming the national average by recording 12.7 per cent, 10 per cent, and 13.9 per cent increases respectively.

Remarkably, Hobart saw the number of new listings soar 45.7 per cent between August and September, while Darwin also reported a notable rise (27.6 per cent).

Such sharp listings increase coincide with a stronger-than-expected start to the spring selling season, with national auction activity surging during the dawn of the warmer months. The week ending 8 October saw nearly 2,500 homes go under the hammer across the country with such figures not uncommon in the 2023 spring selling season.

Running concurrently with the increase in listings and almost untamed auction activity has been the sustained value growth of Australian property for practically 2023’s entirety, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to hold the cash rate for the fourth consecutive month.

At the end of last month, PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh explained the listings surge has been heavily influenced by stronger seller sentiment in spring, as the nation distances itself further and further away from the economic headwinds of the last 18 months.

“Improved seller sentiment has been a key driver of the increase in listings, with confidence springing as interest rates remain on hold amid positive market conditions,” she explained.

Three weeks removed from her comments and their merit is truer than ever, with Louis Christopher, managing director at SQM Research, highlighting September’s listing surge was “the strongest new listings month since April 2022 [and] also the strongest September since 2018”.

He added that the “pick up in new listings is a sign of confidence from vendors that the current market is offering good selling conditions”.

“Buyers would also be noticing the increase in choice of stock,” he shared.

And while distressed listings rising 1.3 per cent nationally between August and September might paint a gloomy picture of borrowers’ capacity to manage the lagged effects of the RBA’s rate hiking cycle, the research firm confirmed distressed listings are down 16.7 per cent in the last 12 months.

The ACT reported the largest distressed listings rise in September (11.1 per cent), followed by NSW (4 per cent) and Western Australia (3.6 per cent). Both South Australia and Queensland reported distressed listings increases of 2.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively.

Mr Christopher did throw caution to the wind, warning the nation “did record a rise in older stock which suggests there are vendors with overly lofty pricing expectations in the market”.

“And while activity has increased in 2023, it is not a boom by any means,” he concluded.