RBA reveals December cash rate call

In the lead-up to today’s decision, comparison site Finder had surveyed 45 of the nation’s leading economists and commentators, and found a majority expecting a rate cut to be held off until February next year.

David Robertson of Bendigo And Adelaide Bank expects “the RBA to remain on hold until February or May 2020, when another cut to 1/2 per cent is likely. QE may be more effective, in the absence of fiscal stimulus”.

Highlighting a wait and see approach was Griffiths University’s Tim Nelson, who believes the economy should hold at current rates.

The RBA is likely to want to hold remaining rate cuts in reserves and wait to see how macro events play out, including US election and impeachment, Brexit, AUD and property market stabilisation.

Despite today’s unchanged rate, Finder’s survey has foreshadowed even lower rates in the future, with 66 per cent of economists predicting a rate cut in 2020.

Finder’s survey has foreshadowed even lower rates in the future, with quantitative easing (QE) becoming a possibility. 

Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said QE will be on the cards if the rate cuts continue to be ineffective beyond the housing market.

“The RBA said they may look to alternative stimulus methods once the rate hits 0.25 per cent. 

“We’re only two cuts away from that, and the three cuts of 2019 have failed to stimulate anything beyond the housing market,” Mr Cooke said.

On the bright side, a recession looks increasingly unlikely in 2020, with 89 per cent of experts not expecting an economic decline and 88 per cent thinking it unlikely that house prices will fall.