Why it’s time to throw away the crystal ball
Sydneysiders are split on whether the city will see price growth this year, but are short-term predictions distracting property watchers from the real keys to success?
As mortgage broker Shore Financial looks ahead to Sydney’s prospects for 2024, chief executive officer Theo Chambers has an important warning to deliver.
With the outlook for price growth unclear over the next six to 12 months, Mr Chambers reminded prospective buyers that it is essential to take a long-term view of Sydney property.
“Anyone who invests in Sydney property believes – with good reason – that Sydney prices are likely to grow strongly over the long term,” Mr Chambers stated.
“In that case, time in the market is more important than timing the market.”
According to the CEO, there are currently “two schools of thought around how things will play out over the next 12 months”.
“One group believes house prices will soon decline, due to affordability constraints, and that Sydney’s median house price will be lower at the end of 2024 than the start. The other group believes demand will continue to outstrip very limited house supply, particularly if interest rates start falling towards the end of the year, and that 2024 will be a year of growth,” explained Mr Chambers.
When it comes to his own perspective, Mr Chambers is firmly in the latter camp.
Based on research from the newly released Shore Financial State of Sydney Report, he shared that in his opinion, Sydney’s median house price is likely to be higher at the end of 2024 than the start.
However, he emphasised that this growth will not be distributed evenly across all suburbs, stating: “Most suburbs should grow, but some will stagnate and a few will go backwards.”
When it comes to growth prospects, Mr Chambers said that “the more affordable end of the market, in the western suburbs, south-western suburbs and Blue Mountains, is likely to experience stronger price growth than some of the more affluent suburbs, in the north and east of the city”.
The State of Sydney Report forecast Cecil Hills, Bankstown and Picnic Point in western Sydney to experience price growth of over 5 per cent in the next six months.
Minto, Winmalee and Mount Pritchard are also expected to see growth of over 5 per cent in the next six months, each of which still has a median home price of under $900,000.
Significant growth is still on the horizon for a few of Sydney’s more affluent suburbs, such as Middle Dural and Curl Curl, but with median home prices in the $3 million and $4 million range, substantial growth in Sydney’s wealthy regions is less widespread.
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