Interest rate predictions for 2016

It’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?

Perhaps it’s not quite worth that much, but the question of where interest rates are headed in 2016 has certainly crossed every property owner’s mind.

This is perhaps driven by the confusion we experienced in 2015, when we went from what most considered a stable interest rate environment to a volatile mortgage season of shifting rates, terms and conditions.

Investors are now paying up to half a per cent more than they were six months ago (even though the official cash rate hasn’t moved), and investment loans are becoming harder to secure.

Overall, it’s an uncertain time and at Multifocus Properties & Finance we’ve certainly noticed an increase in enquiries from clients who are wondering what they should do next. They want to know:

• Are interest rates going to increase in the next year?
• Should I fix my rates now to avoid getting stung by further increases?
• Or is my mortgage likely to fall again in 2016?

While I have no definitive answers for you, I do have my thoughts on the subject.

Managing your mortgage in 2016: will rates rise or fall?

It obviously helps to be able to budget and make investment and financial plans if you know how much your mortgage is going to cost you over the year ahead.

The good news?

I believe the Reserve Bank will reduce interest rates in 2016.

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens virtually said as much at the RBA’s December board meeting, when he commented:

“The board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate.”

Whether it’s one rate cut or two, we’re likely to see the cash rate come down.

The bad news?

Just because the Reserve Bank decreases the cash rate doesn’t mean the banks will pass it on to consumers. Their behaviour in recent months has proven that they’re ready and willing to operate to the beat of their own drum, and a 25-basis point decrease delivered by Mr Glenn and co. could become an opportunity for them to reinforce their balance sheets, rather than reward customers.

Should you fix or stay variable?

In saying this, if you currently hold a mortgage it’s important to retain some perspective.

Most people who have a home loan right now, or who are applying for one, are paying a mortgage interest rate that begins with four. This is half what we were paying during the GFC, and far lower than we are accustomed to paying for our mortgages.

Consider the fact that over the past 50 years or so, mortgage interest rates have averaged around seven per cent. It’s generally accepted in the industry that seven per cent is the ‘norm’, so to have an extended period where mortgages are available in the 4.5 to five per cent range is not to be taken lightly.

Some in the industry believe interest rates will remain around their current historical lows for several years, particularly as the Australian economy continues to re-balance away from mining. Adding to this, most banks have a five-year fixed rate between 4.5 per cent and five per cent, so it seems that banks bet that we are in for a long stretch at low levels.

This could mean fixing your interest rates to lock in rate certainty and allow you to manage your budget effectively. It could also mean saving a little harder to increase your cash reserves in case of another lender-led interest rate hike; or reviewing your property rents to ensure your investment properties are returning as much profit as possible.

Read more: 

10 markets to take-off in 2016

8 areas with 30%-plus growth 

How to start investing without a plan 

'Worrying signs' emerging for housing market 

Capital city price gains revealed 

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