Bank forecasts subdued results from spring selling season

While this year is not expected to buck the trend, Bank of Queensland (BOQ) chief economist Peter Munckton has warned that expectations should be managed in the months ahead.

Munckton said he believes the property market will be more subdued this spring compared to last year, though he added that 2023 set a very high bar.

“While housing demand growth is likely to slow, it will do so from a high level. Factors such as rising unemployment and slowing migration growth will counterbalance improvements in household disposable incomes and some pent-up demand,” the economist said.

In his view, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold off on lowering the cash rate until 2025, with slight risk still existing that a rate hike could occur before then “if inflation doesn’t moderate in line with our forecasts”.

Though he agrees the likeliest scenario is a decrease in the first half of next year.

Given the timing, he said that the market could very well be swayed more by interest rates than seasonal trends in the months ahead.

“A rate reduction is likely to lead to a bounce in activity. Lower interest rates would also benefit new home construction”.

From a 12-month view, he expects the pace of price growth to slow, with individual market factors having more of an impact on price fluctuations.

“Increasing house prices has led to a rise of new listings. Some moderation in the growth of demand, rising supply and increasing affordability concerns will see moderation in house price growth over the next year.

“Naturally, house price performance will continue to differ across regions reflecting differences in regional economic performance and housing affordability,” Munckton said.