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Rental data paints more vivid picture into Perth property fortunes

Perth’s property fortunes for 2025 could be hidden in rental data, as the Western Australian capital comes off mammoth growth for both property and rental prices.

clare christiansen rent choice spi nrlezi

It’s no secret that Perth has been the standout performer of all the capital cities over the past year, with the median dwelling price rising by 19.1 per cent to hit $813,016 at the end of 2024, while the city also boasts the second highest rental yield of all the mainland capitals at 4.2 per cent.

The biggest contributor to the growth has been the city’s high population growth, driven by both interstate and international migrants attracted to the city’s strong jobs market and coastal lifestyle.

According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, which was released last month, Western Australia is still leading the nation for population growth at about 2.8 per cent or the equivalent of 84,000 people in one year.

However, the problem with the ABS data is it’s old – about six months old.

While these stats were only released in mid-December – a mere few weeks ago – the data is for the period ending 30 June 2024.

That means it’s not really giving us a current snapshot of what’s happening with Perth’s population growth, and the more immediate flow-on effects to property and rental prices.

To gain a more up-to-date picture of what’s happening with the city’s population changes, we crunched Rent Choice rental application data, which provides greater real-time insights.

Taking a random sample of 100 rental applications from both November 2023 and November 2024, we categorised these between local, interstate and international applicants.

The results showed a significant drop in interstate and international applicants seeking to call Perth home.

In November 2023, the interstate and international cohort accounted for a massive 39 of the 100 rental applications.

However, just one year later, in November 2024, this same cohort accounted for just 9 of the 100 rental applications.

While not a perfect science, given it’s simply a random sample of applications and there’s also the local demand factor – the change could be impacted by more local applications year-on-year – it does provide some additional insight to consider.

All things being equal, it’s safe to say the peak of Western Australia’s post-COVID-19 population surge has passed. However, it’s commonly expected the state’s population growth will remain strong into 2025.

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This has led many leading industry commentators to expect Perth property price rises between 8 per cent and 15 per cent for the year ahead, and with solid long-term fundamentals the city remains a desired property investment location for many.

Applicants

November 2023

November 2024

Local (WA-based)

61

91

Interstate

19

6

International

20

3

*Table shows a random sample of 100 Rent Choice rental applicants for each month and where these applicants reside.

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