Property market update: Sydney, March 2022

With the harbour city posting its first monthly decline in house prices in 18 months in March, many experts say that the real estate boom in the NSW capital is now officially over.

After surging by almost 27 per cent in 2021, the epicentre of Australia’s massive residential market is seeing a change in psychology among home buyers.

Sydney’s stratospheric prices, alongside rising supply on the market and talk of interest-rate rises ramping up, are souring people on buying and effectively hurting demand, according to local market observers.

CoreLogic data showed that Sydney’s growth rate showed the most significant slowdown among capital markets in almost a year, falling from a peak of 9.3 per cent in the three months to May 2021 to only 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2022.

And it’s not just Sydney that’s running out of puff. CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said that while prices in the other capital cities and regional areas were still growing, Australia’s housing market had “lost momentum”.

“Virtually every capital city and major rest of state region [have] moved through a peak in the trend rate of growth some time last year or earlier this year,” he said.

He also explained why Sydney was losing steam faster than any other capital. “The sharpest slowdown has been in Sydney, where housing prices are the most unaffordable, advertised supply is trending higher and sales activity is down over the year,” Mr Lawless stated.

New figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that housing loan commitments were valued at just under $32.3 billion in February, marking a monthly decline of 3.7 per cent.

The value of owner-occupier mortgages fell by 4.7 per cent compared with a 1.8 per cent fall in investor loans.

Commenting on the figures, CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman said the end of the 2 per cent mortgage rates era was deterring new borrowers, as the big four and financial markets predicted the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates in 2022 — faster than what forecasts have been saying at the end of 2021.

“The pace of home lending growth is slowing, as rising fixed mortgage rates, higher home loan servicing buffers and affordability constraints crimp demand, particularly from owner-occupiers and first-home buyers,” he said.

Another indication that Sydney’s turbocharged housing market is shifting to first gear came from Domain’s latest report, which showed that more than one in 10 homes are selling for less than they were initially priced.

An estimated 10.5 per cent of dwellings are having to sell at a significantly discounted price because of the phenomenon — reportedly brought on by a saturated real estate industry, with too many people wanting to sell and not enough buyers to go around, according to Domain.

At the peak of last year’s property boom in July, the figures were half as much, with only 5.9 per cent of Sydney sellers having to discount their value to be snapped up.

Domain’s head of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell said that buyers were getting choosier, which was leading to a housing slowdown.

“Buyers are getting more careful of paying too much [for a property] rather than paying out of fear of missing out. We’ve gone into 2022 with much better buying conditions,” she said.

Adding to the city’s woes, there are growing concerns that the flood disaster on the country’s east coast at the start of the month could result in stagnant prices, and even potentially reverse the spectacular gains seen during the pandemic in Sydney’s north-west and northern NSW.

While house prices have historically bounced back after similar flooding incidents, concerns about increased frequency and severity of weather events could put buyers off for a long time, according to the chief executive of Starr Partners, Douglas Driscoll.

“I think it’s going to take a bit of time before people will consider those areas again and many will be very cautious because of the sheer devastation of the flood that they’re seeing, something they probably have not factored in before the event,” he said.

With the odds stacked against Sydney and with major market shakeups on the horizon, what does the rest of the year spell out for the city? For now, let’s see how Sydney’s market performed in March 2022.

Property values

While Sydney prices were expected to drop in 2022, most experts did not forecast values in the city turning down so early in the year.

CoreLogic’s latest data showed average dwelling values in Sydney fell 0.2 per cent over March, further weakening from the 0.1 per cent drop seen in February.

Melbourne was the only other capital city in the red in terms of median property value growth, posting a 0.1 per cent decline during the same period.

On a rolling quarterly basis, the NSW capital’s values are now up by only 0.3 per cent, falling from the 0.8 per cent seen in the last three-month period and moving further away from the 9.3 per cent peak observed in May 2021.

Compared to the same period last year, Sydney’s median values are now up by 17.7 per cent.

And while NSW capital remains by far the most expensive city to buy a home, with an average price tag of $1,116,889, the less than $1,000 monthly increase is a new look for Sydney, which has seen galloping monthly price gains throughout the boom.

Another interesting trend emerged in the city’s market during the month, as the city’s house sector saw its first monthly decline in over a year.

The city’s housing market recorded a 0.1 per cent decline over March, with the average value of a Sydney house currently at $1,403,154. Month-on-month, the median price has fallen by almost $7,000.

Compared to March 2021, median house prices are up by 20.6 per cent.

Meanwhile, the city’s apartment sector also dragged its feet during the period, notching a 0.5 per cent decline over March. The figures mark a steeper decline compared to the 0.3 per cent drop seen in February.

Over the year, unit values are still up 10.8 per cent. Despite the monthly decline, median prices for units in the city are still up by over $2,000 month-on-month at $833,815.

Most experts forecast that price declines in the two biggest cities, Melbourne and Sydney, will be triggered by an interest rate hike later this year or in early 2023.

However, with data showing that buyers are now starting to reach the limits of what they can afford and with banks reducing how much they will lend and more homes being listed for sale, experts say that cities’ runaway prices are now getting a bitter chill pill.

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the high-end major capitals have likely peaked, and values fell due to buyers’ already hitting their financial limits.

“The evidence is pretty clear. Prices have peaked in the two biggest capital cities. Affordability has become stretched because prices have gone up so much. There is a limit to how high they can go,” he said.

The economist added: “You can’t continue to grow indefinitely and that affordability picture has kicked in earlier in Sydney and Melbourne.”

Mr Aird further explained that lending had receded from an elevated level and values have fallen from “extraordinary” gains, both indicators of a cooling market and trends that will emerge regardless of what the RBA does.

Supply and demand

In March, the divergence in performance seen between different capital markets matches up with how much, or how little, supply is available in those different markets. And in Sydney, the high supply level poured cold water on the FOMO sentiment among buyers.

New SQM Research data showed total residential listings in the city rose by 3.0 per cent in March to 28, 494 from 27, 662 in February.

Compared to March 2021, the total number of properties with a ‘for sale’ tag in the NSW capital is up by 5.5 per cent.

New listings (or properties that have been on the market less than 30 days) in Sydney saw an increase of 4.1 per cent from 15, 155 in February to 15, 783 in March. Over the year, new listings in the city are now up by 3.9 per cent.

Meanwhile, data showed that old listings or property listings over 180 days fell by 0.7 per cent from 3, 427 in February to 3, 403 in March. Year on year, old listings have fallen by 31.7 per cent.

Commenting on the figures, Managing director of SQM Research Louis Christopher said: "The rise in listings over March will be welcome to home buyers who largely struggled for choice, last year."

He added: Going forward I expect we will shortly enter into a lack lustre period of activity in the lead up to the Federal Election. After that point there will be a looming interest rate rise for the market to consider.”

CoreLogic stated that new listings are still dictating each market’s growth.

On a national level, total available listings remain 30 per cent below the five-year average. While that number continues to decline as more stock becomes available, it does not paint a detailed picture of what is happening in different markets.

In Sydney, the total advertised supply has risen significantly over the past 12 months, with listings in the city now just 2.6 per cent below that average.

The higher stock levels across Sydney can be explained by an above-average flow of new listings coming on the market in combination with a drop in buyer demand, according to Mr Lawless.

“With higher inventory levels and less competition, buyers are gradually moving back into the driver’s seat,” Mr Lawless explained.

“That means more time to deliberate on their purchase decisions and negotiate on price.”

For comparison, listings in Brisbane and Adelaide (where prices are still on the rise) are both more than -40 per cent below the five-year average, indicating extremely tight markets where new stock can’t keep up with buyer demand.

Auction markets

Sydney’s auction clearance rate continued to remain below the 70 per cent threshold in March as a result of more homes on the market and reduced competition.

Domain’s latest auction report showed that Sydney’s clearance rates rose 1.3 percentage points to 67.6 per cent, the highest rate since October 2021.

However, the city’s clearance rate is still down 13.9 percentage points on an annual basis.

The report also noted that while March marks the second consecutive month of growth, the trend is still moving downwards and clearance rates continue to remain below 70 per cent for the fifth month in a row – suggesting an increasingly cooling auction market.

Data also showed that Sydney’s median auction house price is up 7.4 per cent over the year to $1.89 million but is down 3.5 per cent on a monthly basis.

Commenting on the figures, Dr Powell stated: “The median price is still up over the year, but that reduction over the past month is a sign of weakness and another indicator that the Sydney market is losing momentum.”

According to Domain, the increased choice for buyers has forced sellers to meet the market, and vendors are coming to understand what is a realistic price for their properties.

Sydney saw the highest number of auction listings for the month of March since Domain records began, with a total of 4,421 properties going under the hammer.

Dr Powell said that the record-breaking number of auction listings was good news for those still looking to enter the property market.

“Listings have been strong overall so far this year, we’re seeing a build-up of stock, we’re seeing more auctions are occurring, and this is good news for buyers,” Dr Powell said, adding: “And that’s because the increased supply is creating better buying conditions, it’s giving people more choice.”

Dr Powell also forecast that the increased supply of homes being listed on the market would likely further impact clearance rates as the year progresses.

“As the market moves further into autumn and more homes hit the market, buyer appetite could decline due to increased choice, which will see the continued fall in clearance rates at the end of last year continue in 2022,” Dr Powell said.

Separate data from CoreLogic showed that the city saw a total of 2,133 auctions during the last two weeks of March, with an average clearance rate of 64.8 per cent.

If you want to be in the loop about what’s happening across auction markets in the country, follow our weekly updates in our News section.

Vacancy rates

Industry experts reiterated its previous warning in February that the country is now on the edge of a rental crisis, with competition for homes soaring as the proportion of vacant rental properties falls to its lowest level in years.

Domain’s latest data showed Sydney’s vacancy rate hit its lowest point since the property data provider’s records began, sitting at 1.4 per cent in March.

The figures are also lower than the 1.7 per cent vacancy rate seen in February.

Domain noted that Sydney’s rental vacancy rates are significantly lower than they were before the pandemic hit. Compared to the same period last year, the figures are down by 1.5 per cent.

The tightest rental markets in the city were dominated by far-flung areas due to a combination of factors, including city renters looking for more space and the shortage of rental properties as investors cash in on the property boom, according to rental market experts.

The areas with the highest vacancy rates were Rouse Hill – McGraths Hill (2.6 per cent), Ku-ring-gai (2.6 per cent), Blacktown – North (2.4 per cent), Canterbury (2.2 per cent), Pittwater (1.9 per cent).

Meanwhile, the areas with the lowest vacancy rates were Blue Mountains (0.2 per cent), Camden (0.3 per cent), Wyong (0.4 per cent), Sutherland – Menai – Heathcote (0.4 per cent), and Richmond – Windsor (0.4 per cent).

The tight rental conditions are further exacerbated by the low number of rental vacancies in the city, with increasing demand in the first quarter of 2022 absorbing availability, according to Domain.

Data showed that rental listings in Sydney are down by 12.4 per cent over the month to just under 8,500.

Dr Powell forecasts that rental demand will continue to sharply rebound following the full reopening of the international border to double-vaccinated visa holders and tourists after two years of closures.

The expert also noted that the resurgence in demand would be predominantly seen in Melbourne and Sydney, which are “destination hotspots”.

Rental market

With Sydney’s vacancy rates at their lowest level in recent years, the city’s weekly rent average is now on the rise as rental market conditions continue to swing in favour of landlords.

Over March, SQM Research reported that Sydney’s asking rents grew by 2.4 per cent for houses to $783 per week, and 1.6 per cent for units, reaching $501 a week.

Compared to the previous year, rents for houses and units in the city have risen by 19.5 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, CoreLogic data showed that on an annual basis, both house and unit rents in the city rose by 9 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively.

The report also showed that over the rolling quarter, the unit sector has shown stronger growth in rents compared to houses.

According to Mr Lawless, the stronger rental conditions across the unit sector demonstrates a remarkable turnaround in rental conditions across higher-density markets, where rents fell sharply through the first nine months of the pandemic.

“Through the pandemic to-date, capital city house rents have risen by 13.8 per cent compared with a 3.4 per cent rise in unit values,” Mr Lawless said.

“The net result is that renting a unit is substantially more affordable than renting a house. This affordability advantage, along with a gradual return of overseas migration, employees progressively returning to offices and inner-city precincts regaining some vibrancy, are likely key factors pushing unit rents higher,” he explained.

With the pace of growth in housing values softening while rental growth holds reasonably stable, CoreLogic noted that the national level of gross rental yields stabilised during the month at 3.2 per cent.

Sydney and Melbourne remained the only capitals where gross yields are averaging below 3 per cent. Sydney showed the lowest rental returns of 2.5 per cent among capital cities due to lower rental growth relative to a high rate of capital gain.

Domain also forecast that the rise in investor activity, as well as overseas migrants who will rent upon arrival in the coming months, will spiral rental demand further and bolster the case for future potential rental price increases.

Outlook for Sydney’s market

With the first quarter of 2022 now wrapped up, what’s next for Sydney’s property market?

Most experts agree that the recent data confirmed that Sydney (along with Melbourne) is officially stepping out of the property boom phase.

“It does look like the boom is over in both of those cities,” Mr Lawless said.

“In fact, we are now seeing those markets either right at the top of their cycle and about to start to move into a consistent downturn or potentially already moving into a downturn.”

“We are seeing less demand in the market but, of course, there [are] other factors around rising interest rates. Affordability is still very challenging in both of those cities as well,” the expert added.

The latest data from Real Estate Authority (REA) backs the narrative of Sydney’s real estate boom as a thing of the past, after the real estate body identified 54 suburbs in the Greater Sydney area where median values have peaked in the last few months and now gone backward.

“That rate of growth has eased, the peak is gone,” according to REA head of economic research Cameron Kusher.

“I think we will see more declines in more suburbs, especially if interest rates do rise,” he predicted.

Speaking on the latest episode of Real Estate Exposed on the REB Network, real estate coach, auctioneer, and trainer Tom Panos said that the boom is over for the key markets of Australia that everyone seems to be obsessed with the most, which are Sydney and Melbourne.

“That’s official. I’m saying it. The data is saying it,” Mr Panos said during his chat with REB executive editor Phil Tarrant.

While he declares that the biggest markets have made their final bow under the real estate spotlight, he described the recent boom as “an incredible run”.

“Between 2018 and 2022, we’re talking about people having their properties that have more or less come close to doubling, depending on the suburb that you’ve been in. That is a boom,” he said.

“Particularly the 2020-2021 period, the price growth that we’ve had has been incredible. But it had to come to an end, and it has come to an end.”

The founder of Real Estate Gym said that the significant shift in market conditions, particularly consumer sentiment, makes it evident that the “party is over” for Sydney.

He highlighted that buyers “no longer have fear of missing out”, and instead have developed a fear of overpaying.

“The fear of overpaying is highly impacted by a few headwinds that are coming,” Mr Panos shared, listing off the Ukraine War, the potential for rate rises, and the upcoming federal election as all impacting consumer sentiment at play.

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