What will Australia’s property landscape look like in 40 years?
Analysis of the latest Intergenerational Report reveals key ways that the Australian property landscape could change to meet the needs of a population that is substantially shifting.
Looking 40 years into the future, the annual release provides a projected understanding of what the country’s demographics and care requirements will look like at that point in time, alongside assessing the changing face of issues such as climate change, tech advancements and geopolitical relationships.
The 2023’s release painted a clear picture of a country set to age significantly, with the number of Australians aged 65 and older on track to double in the next 40 years, while the number of people aged 85 and older is forecast to triple. This means more homes equipped for the needs of post-retirement life will be necessary, particularly to encourage rightsizing and downsizing behaviour that brings a necessary turnover to the property market.
Off the back of a housing shortage, Australia is already preparing to ramp up its home production capacity to meet ambitious targets over the next five years. According to the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA), this shouldn’t be regarded as a building boom, but rather a rapid transition to a new-normal level of home building.
Analysis by the property development body showed demand for 6.6 million new homes to be built over the coming 40 years to account for population growth, the needs of ageing residents and the current housing shortfall.
According to UDIA, because of the rate of migration that Australia is experiencing as well as its current housing pressures, a large proportion of that new housing is required sooner rather than later – within the next decade.
During this time, it estimated that the country should be looking to build 191,000 dwellings annually until 2033. This net dwelling growth is 12 per cent higher than the annual average of new dwellings achieved between 2002 and 2022.
“The Intergenerational Report is yet another clarion call that we must act immediately if we are to make significant inroads on housing our existing population and supporting the anticipated population growth and demographic changes to 2062,” said UDIA national president Max Shifman.
He described a “vicious cycle” currently stymieing efforts to increase the development industry’s capacity, wherein a lack of development-ready land is elongating building times, slowing building capacity and exacerbating cost pressures on businesses and consumers, further dampening development appetite.
“Industry is encouraged by the government’s efforts to incentivise housing targets and the proposed housing and affordability reforms announced recently by national cabinet, such as building enabling and supporting infrastructure as well as streamlining planning and regulation,” Mr Shifman said, but he urged governments to think bigger than they already are.
“These can certainly lead to increased housing supply, but the Intergenerational Report demonstrates that all good housing initiatives need to be ramped up tenfold for the next 40 years to ensure a home for all Australians,” he said.
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